Every major breakthrough in history was discovered twice. It's a pattern.
When Darwin published his theory of evolution, he was racing against Wallace, who had independently reached the same insight. When Newton invented calculus, Leibniz was developing it too. When Le Verrier calculated the existence of Neptune from mathematical disturbances in Uranus' orbit, Adams had already done the same math.
This pattern never stops. The periodic table? Mendeleev and Meyer. Non-Euclidean geometry? Lobachevsky and Bolyai. The four-minute mile stood unbroken for years - then Bannister did it, and 46 days later, Landy did too.
I can keep going! The microchip - two people in the same year. Lightning rod - two people five years apart. Stratosphere - two people, 3 days apart. ATM machine. Oxygen. Jet engine. Polycarbonate. Television. Film projector. Neutrino mass.
Let us look around today - multiple AI labs independently developing similar ideas. Different teams reaching CRISPR breakthroughs in parallel. Quantum computing thresholds being hit by several companies at once.
Prediction: things we will see simultaneously done by multiple teams: (written in late 2024):
1. AGI - Multiple labs showing similar advances in reasoning and capabilities
2. Room temperature superconductors
3. Aging/longevity
4. Nuclear fusion
5. Brain-computer interfaces for everyone
6. Quantum error correction
7. General purpose robotics
8. New battery chemistries
9. Programmable matter
10. Cancer blood tests
11. Consciousness understanding
When the breakthrough comes, it won't come alone.